What would Hines Ward's numbers be if he played for an average passing team or a pass happy team?

Photo Credit: thestartingfive.files.wordpress.com

A few months ago, I read a post on Pro Football Reference.com’s Blog that analyzed what Marvin Harrison’s career would have looked like if he didn’t have Peyton Manning as his QB. That reminded me of a question that I’ve heard asked about Hines Ward: Since he’s always played on a run first team, what kind of numbers would he have if he were on a more pass happy team? Of course, as with the Harrison analysis, there is really no way of knowing. But, I thought it would be entertaining to complete a simple calculation to get an idea of how many catches and receiving yards he might have if given more opportunities to catch the ball.

The idea behind this analysis is that I wanted to have a way to calculate how many receptions and receiving yards that Hines would have if he had played on the “Average NFL Passing Team,” the “Top NFL Passing Team,” and the Indianapolis Colts. My thinking was that if I performed these calculations for 3 different scenarios, that would give  a better idea of what Hines’s statistics might have actually looked like if he were on a team that averaged in the top half or top ten in passing yards throughout his career. It would give a sort of range that we could say with some confidence that his numbers would fall within. So, in my thinking, the numbers for the “Average NFL Passing Team” would be the bottom of the range, while the numbers for the “Top NFL Passing Team” would be the top of the range.

To complete this analysis, I pulled the following data from Pro-Football-Reference.com for the years of Hines Ward’s career:

• Steelers’ Pass Attempts each year
• Steelers’ Passing Yards each year
• NFL League Average Pass Attempts each year
• NFL League Average Passing Yards each year
• Pass Attempts each year for that year’s leader in passing yards
• Passing Yards each year for that year’s leader in passing yards
• Pass Attempts each year for the Indianapolis Colts
• Passing Yards each year for the Indianapolis Colts.
• Hines Ward’s receptions and receiving yards for each year

The team data is shown in the following table. Ward’s data is shown in the next one.

Steelers’ Passing compared to NFL sorted by Passing Yards
Year	Pit Att	Pit Yards	NFLAvg Att	NFLAvg Yards	NFLTop Att	NFLTop Yards	Indy Att	Indy Yards
1998	489	2552	516.3	3279.5	533	4328	576	3630
1999	535	2883	540.6	3396.4	530	4353	546	4066
2000	439	2518	526.5	3309.9	587	5232	571	4282
2001	454	3113	522	3292.9	551	4663	557	3989
2002	551	3832	540.4	3395.7	619	4475	591	4055
2003	532	3304	515.4	3207.1	569	4179	569	4179
2004	358	2720	511.1	3368.7	527	4623	527	4623
2005	379	2926	514.5	3255.3	670	4437	515	4096
2006	523	3733	512.2	3276.9	580	4503	557	4308
2007	442	3071	532.7	3428.8	586	4731	551	4033
2008	506	3301	516.4	3380.5	636	4977	585	4094

Using Hines Ward’s yearly statistics, I determined what percentage of  Steelers’ passes and passing yards he accounted for. That data is shown in the table below.

Ward’s Percentage of Pittsburgh’s Passes, Passing Yards
Year	Ward Rec	Ward Yds	Pit Att	Pit Yards	Ward % Att Rec	Ward % Yards
1998	15	246	489	2552	3.07%	9.64%
1999	61	638	535	2883	11.40%	22.13%
2000	48	672	439	2518	10.93%	26.69%
2001	94	1003	454	3113	20.70%	32.22%
2002	112	1329	551	3832	20.33%	34.68%
2003	95	1163	532	3304	17.86%	35.20%
2004	80	1004	358	2720	22.35%	36.91%
2005	69	975	379	2926	18.21%	33.32%
2006	74	975	523	3733	14.15%	26.12%
2007	71	732	442	3071	16.06%	23.84%
2008	81	1043	506	3301	16.01%	31.60%
Tot	800	9780	5208	33953	15.36%	28.80%

For my analysis, I decided to see how many receptions and receiving yards Hines would have if he accounted for the same percentage on the “Average NFL Passing Team” and “Top NFL Passing Team.” I used the League average because there were only 3 years in Hines’s career that the Steelers were above the league average in pass attempts and passing yards: 2002, 2003, and 2006. Again, I also included the numbers for whatever team had the most passing yards each year to give a top end range. In each case, I multiplied Hines’s percentage contribution for the Steelers times the number of attempts and passing yards for “Average” and “Top” teams for each year. Both of these data sets are shown in the tables below.

	Ward’s Numbers  on the “Average NFL Passing Team”
Year	Ward % Att Rec	Ward % Yards	NFL Avg Att	NFL Avg Yards	Ward Rec NFL Avg	Ward Yds NFL Avg
1998	3.07%	9.64%	516.3	3279.5	16	316
1999	11.40%	22.13%	540.6	3396.4	62	752
2000	10.93%	26.69%	526.5	3309.9	58	883
2001	20.70%	32.22%	522	3292.9	108	1061
2002	20.33%	34.68%	540.4	3395.7	110	1178
2003	17.86%	35.20%	515.4	3207.1	92	1129
2004	22.35%	36.91%	511.1	3368.7	114	1243
2005	18.21%	33.32%	514.5	3255.3	94	1085
2006	14.15%	26.12%	512.2	3276.9	72	856
2007	16.06%	23.84%	532.7	3428.8	86	817
2008	16.01%	31.60%	516.4	3380.5	83	1068
Tot	15.36%	28.80%			894	10388

 

	Ward’s Numbers  on the “Top NFL Passing Team”
Year	Ward % Att Rec	Ward % Yards	NFL Top Att	NFL Top Yards	Ward Rec NFL Top	Ward Yds NFL Top
1998	3.07%	9.64%	533	4328	16	417
1999	11.40%	22.13%	530	4353	60	963
2000	10.93%	26.69%	587	5232	64	1396
2001	20.70%	32.22%	551	4663	114	1502
2002	20.33%	34.68%	619	4475	126	1552
2003	17.86%	35.20%	569	4179	102	1471
2004	22.35%	36.91%	527	4623	118	1706
2005	18.21%	33.32%	670	4437	122	1478
2006	14.15%	26.12%	580	4503	82	1176
2007	16.06%	23.84%	586	4731	94	1128
2008	16.01%	31.60%	636	4977	102	1573
Tot	15.36%	28.80%			1000	14363

Because the team that lead the league in passing yards was different for most years, I wanted to see what the numbers would look like if I used a single team that is generally seen as a passing team for the past decade: the Indianapolis Colts. The results of my calculations for the Colts are shown in the table below.

	Ward’s Numbers  on the Indianapolis Colts
Year	Ward % Att Rec	Ward % Yards	Indy Att	Indy Yards	Ward Rec Indy	Ward Yds Indy
1998	3.07%	9.64%	576	3630	18	350
1999	11.40%	22.13%	546	4066	62	900
2000	10.93%	26.69%	571	4282	62	1143
2001	20.70%	32.22%	557	3989	115	1285
2002	20.33%	34.68%	591	4055	120	1406
2003	17.86%	35.20%	569	4179	102	1471
2004	22.35%	36.91%	527	4623	118	1706
2005	18.21%	33.32%	515	4096	94	1365
2006	14.15%	26.12%	557	4308	79	1125
2007	16.06%	23.84%	551	4033	89	961
2008	16.01%	31.60%	585	4094	94	1294
Tot	15.36%	28.80%			952	13006

Based on these calculations, if Hines Ward were just on an average passing team throughout his career, he would have had 2 more 100+ reception years and 1 more 1000+ yard receiving season. He would have 94 more catches and over 600 more yards in his career. This would put him in the top ten in career receptions, but still about 3000 yards shy of the top 10 in yardage.

If Hines had played for the top passing team in the league each year (obviously a highlyimprobable suggestion), he would have had nine 1000+ yard seasons and four 1500+ yard seasons. He would have had six 100+ reception season and two 120+ reception season. For his career, he’d have had 1000 catches and over 14000 yards. With these numbers, he’d be a lock as a first ballot HOFer.

Finally, if Hines had played his entire career with the Colts and he had accounted the same percentage of pass attempts and yardage as he did for the Steelers, he would have had eight 1000+ yard seasons and one 1500+ yard season, with over 1700 yards. And, he would have had four 100+ reception seasons and one where he reached 120 receptions. He would have over 950 catches and over 13000 yards in his career based on this scenario.

The biggest issue that I see with my calculation is that there is really no way to know what percentage of a teams passing Hines would account for. I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe that Hines would account for approximately the same percentages on the “Average NFL Passing Team.” So, I feel pretty comfortable with his numbers in that portion of the analysis. However, it becomes less easy to predict what percentage Hines would account for on the “Top NFL Passing Team” or the Colts. So, to give an idea of whether his Steeler percentages would make sense, I looked at Reggie Wayne’s percentage contribution to the Colts. My reasoning is that if Ward had played for the Colts his entire career, he would likely have been the number 2 receiver with Marvin Harrison. Wayne’s percentages are shown below.

Wayne’s Percentages
Year	Att	Yds	TD
2001	4.85%	8.65%	0.00%
2002	8.29%	17.66%	14.81%
2003	11.95%	20.05%	24.14%
2004	14.61%	26.17%	23.53%
2005	16.12%	25.76%	16.13%
2006*	15.44%	30.41%	29.03%
2007*	18.87%	37.44%	31.25%
2008*	14.02%	27.97%	22.22%
Career	12.94%	24.36%	20.78%

Although Wayne came into the league three years after Ward, I think we have enough data to make a valid comparison. We see that Wayne had a similar increase in contribution from year 1 to years 2 and 3 as Ward. When comparing these with the percentages that Hines accounted for with the Steelers, though, Hines generally accounts for a higher percentage than Wayne. Most likely, this is because the Colts have more weapons for Peyton Manning to choose from than the Steelers have generally had over Hines’s career.

One more piece of data, before I get into the conclusion. After finishing about 2/3 of this post, I realized that I hadn’t analyzed Ward’s TDs. In the interest of space, I am not going to post the tables for TDs, but I followed the same calculation as above. I calculated what percentage of Steelers passing TDs Ward accounted for, and I multiplied that percentage by the average number of TDs for each year, the number of TDs for the top passing team in terms of yardage for that year, and the number of TDs for the Colts. Based on these calculations, Hines’s current TD total would be:

• Average Team – 73
• Top Team – 115
• Colts – 106

If any of you want to see these tables, let me know, and I’ll throw them into another post real quick.

Having reviewed these numbers, here is my conclusion. I think it’s pretty clear that Hines would have more receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs than he currently has if he were on a more pass happy team. However, it would have depended on the team as to whether he was a number 1 or number 2 receiver on the team. I think it is also unlikely that he would have been the number one receiver on the Colts or the Rams in the late 90′s and early 00′s. However, he may have been the top receiver on the Chiefs of early 00′s or the Saints in recent years. However, in either case, when a team relies heavily on the pass, and has great success doing so, they tend to add receiving weapons for their QB, a la the 49ers of the late 80′s or Colts of the 00′s. So, on a team like that, Hines percentage contribution would likely be lower than with the Steelers.

Based on these factors, I would say that the probable ceiling in my analysis should be somewhere about halfway between the “Average NFL Passing Team” numbers and the numbers for the Colts. Of course, the offense would have passed more than the Steelers, and he probably would have had more passes his way. But, it’s unlikely that he would had as high of a percentage contribution as with the Steelers.

So, I’m going to say that Hines Ward’s career numbers with another team who passes more would be in the following ranges:

• 900 – 925 receptions
• 10,400 – 12,200 receiving yard
• 75 – 90 receiving TDs

Well, I know this was a bit of a fantasy type analysis, but I enjoyed thinking about it. Let me know what you thought about it.

About these ads

Tags: Hines Ward