Will the Cowboys Improve in 2009?

Tony Romo (By Ronald Martinez, Getty Images)

Coming off of a 13-3 record in 2007, the Cowboys were among the favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl before the 2008 season. Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, several issues appeared in 2008 to derail what began as a promising season. TO whining, Tony Romo’s injury, and struggles on defense during Romo’s injury led to losses that ultimately cost the team a playoff berth. Coming off of those issues, how likely are they to repeat (or surpass) the success of 2007?

Based on 2008 records, they will face a tougher overall schedule this year than last. The combined winning percentage of 2008 opponents was .492. Coming into 2009, the Cowboys’ Strength of Schedule is ranked 11th with a .516 winning percentage (also based on 2008 records). Now, of course, the final 2009 SOS is not finalized until the season’s over, but this does indicate that the Cowboys may have a somewhat tougher schedule this year.

In this post, I wanted to break down the Cowboys’ 2008 and 2009 schedules a little further to get a better understanding of what they are up against this season (much the same way I had in this post on the Falcons). Taking my raw data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, I have compiled the Offensive and Defensive rankings of the Cowboys’ opponents from 2008 and 2009, broken out in the following 4 categories:

• Pts Rk – Total Points Rank
• Yds Rk – Total Yards Rank
• Pass Rk – Passing Yards Rank
• Rush Rk – Rushing Yards Rank

The rankings for both seasons are based on how the teams finished the 2008 season, since, of course, the 2009 final rankings are yet to be determined.

Before we get into opponents’ rankings, let’s review the Cowboys’ rankings from last season.

	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Cowboys’ 2008 Off Rks	18	13	9	21
Cowboys’ 2008 Def Rks	20	8	5	12

In both defense and offense, the Cowboys finished ranked lower in points than yards. This is most likely due to their being -11 in Takeaway/Giveaway (also taken from Pro-Football-Reference.com). Romo’s injury in the middle of the season also probably caused their offensive numbers to be lower than they otherwise would have been. With these numbers in mind, let’s take a look at the Cowboys’ opponents for last year and this year. In the tables below, we see the Cowboys’ opponents’ offensive and defensive ranks for 2008 and 2009. First, the offensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Cowboys’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	6	22
Green Bay Packers	5	8	8	17
Washington Redskins	28	19	23	8
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
Arizona Cardinals	4	4	2	32
St. Louis Rams	30	27	26	25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	14	11	15
New York Giants	3	7	18	1
Washington Redskins	28	19	23	8
San Francisco 49ers	22	23	13	27
Seattle Seahawks	25	28	29	19
Pittsburgh Steelers	20	22	17	23
New York Giants	3	7	18	1
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	6	22
Average Ranks	17.06	17.31	18.06	17.44

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Cowboys’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	14	11	15
New York Giants	3	7	18	1
Carolina Panthers	7	10	19	3
Denver Broncos	16	2	3	12
Kansas City Chiefs	26	24	20	16
Atlanta Falcons	10	6	14	2
Seattle Seahawks	25	28	29	19
Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	6	22
Green Bay Packers	5	8	8	17
Washington Redskins	28	19	23	8
Oakland Raiders	29	29	32	10
New York Giants	3	7	18	1
San Diego Chargers	2	11	7	20
New Orleans Saints	1	1	1	28
Washington Redskins	28	19	23	8
Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	6	22
Average Ranks	13.38	12.69	14.88	12.75

Next, we have the opponents’ defensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Cowboys’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Philadelphia Eagles	4	3	3	4
Green Bay Packers	22	20	12	26
Washington Redskins	6	4	7	8
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
Arizona Cardinals	28	19	22	16
St. Louis Rams	31	28	19	29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	9	4	19
New York Giants	5	5	8	9
Washington Redskins	6	4	7	8
San Francisco 49ers	23	13	20	13
Seattle Seahawks	25	30	32	18
Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1	1	2
New York Giants	5	5	8	9
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Philadelphia Eagles	4	3	3	4
Average Ranks	13.06	11.5	11.06	13.56

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Cowboys’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	9	4	19
New York Giants	5	5	8	9
Carolina Panthers	12	18	16	20
Denver Broncos	30	29	26	27
Kansas City Chiefs	29	31	28	30
Atlanta Falcons	11	24	21	25
Seattle Seahawks	25	30	32	18
Philadelphia Eagles	4	3	3	4
Green Bay Packers	22	20	12	26
Washington Redskins	6	4	7	8
Oakland Raiders	24	27	10	31
New York Giants	5	5	8	9
San Diego Chargers	15	25	31	11
New Orleans Saints	26	23	23	17
Washington Redskins	6	4	7	8
Philadelphia Eagles	4	3	3	4
Average Ranks	14.63	16.25	14.94	16.63

Just a glance at these tables shows that the level of opponents’ offenses increases while the level of opponents’ defenses decreases. This seems like good news for the Cowboys, because lesser defenses are less likely to force turnovers. While it’s questionable whether the offense is better without TO, facing somewhat weaker defenses throughout the year should lead to improvements in offensive numbers. It may also mean Romo is less likely to get hurt like he did last year. Add in the return of Felix Jones, and you could have a top flight offense again, TO or no TO.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, here are a few items of the note from this data.

• The opponents’ average offensive rank increases 22% in points scored from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average offensive rank increases 27% in yards gained from 2008 to 2009 (18% in pass yards, 27% in rush yards).
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 12% in points allowed from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 41% in yards allowed from 2008 to 2009 (35% in pass yards, 23% in rush yards).
• In 2008, the Cowboys faced the following number of top 10 offenses: 6 in points, 6 in yards, 4 passing, and 5 rushing.
• In 2009, the Cowboys will face the following number of top 10 offenses: 9 in points, 9 in yards, 6 passing, and 7 rushing.
• In 2008, the Cowboys faced the following number of top 10 defenses: 9 in points, 9 in yards, 9 passing, and 8 rushing.
• In 2009, the Cowboys will face the following number of top 10 offenses: 7 in points, 7 in yards, 8 passing, and 6 rushing.

When looking at all of the numbers, I come away with a couple of things. First, the Cowboys should be able to put up tons of yards and points this year. With a significant drop in average opponents’ defensive rankings, they should be able to move the ball offensively pretty well. As I said, getting back Felix Jones should help as well. Keeping Romo healthy will be the key. Second, if the Cowboys had a weakness on defense last year, it was rush defense. Obviously, with Ware bringing the heat, the pass rush was ferocious last year. But, the ‘boys could be run on, and they will be facing even better rushing offenses (on average) this year than last. The hardcore Dallas fans will know better if there are any changes that you could expect to see improvements in rush defense, but based on this analysis, it looks like there may be more rush yards given up than last year. Most likely, the Cowboys’ strategy will be to try to get early leads that will take away opponents’ run games. If they can do this, it will help their run defense.

Overall, it looks like Cowboys’ fans can expect to see a bit more offensive production this year, and likely an improved record and return to the playoffs. However, this analysis didn’t get into individual opponents and what changes each opponent went through in the offseason. For example, the Packers had a top 10 offense but a very disappointing defense last year. But, they’ve brought in Dom Capers in the offseason and are installing a 3-4 defense. They may be greatly improved defensively, or they may still be trying figure out the changes. But, as I said with the Falcons analysis, I think that this does give a good big picture view of the Cowboys’ upcoming schedule.

I would certainly like to hear the thoughts of those Dallas fans who know more about the team and can fill in the details.

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Tags: Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Felix Jones, TO (Terrell Owens), Tony Romo