Analyzing the Steelers’ 2009 Schedule

Ben Roethlisberger

The defending Super Bowl Champion Pittburgh Steelers (it’s wonderful to say, isn’t it? 🙂 ) faced one of the toughest schedules in NFL history last year. In running that gauntlet, they posted a 12-4 record, then went on to win an NFL record 6th Lombardi Trophy. This year, the Steelers expect to compete again for the prize, bringing back the vast majority of last years’ starters. But how will their schedule compare with that of 2008? That is the question that this post looks to answer.

Comparing their 2008 schedule with 2009, it appears that they are facing a much easier schedule than they did last year. In 2009, the Steelers’ Strength of Schedule is ranked 29th, with a 0.434 winning percentage based on 2008 records. That is signicantly lower than the 0.526 winning percentage of their 2008 opponents. Of course, we won’t know the final SOS for this schedule until the end of the season, and teams change each year. At this point, however, it appears that the Steelers will face a considerably less daunting task than one year ago, at least until the playoffs.

In this post, I wanted to break down the Steelers’ 2008 and 2009 schedules a little further to get a better understanding of what they are up against this season (much the same way I had in previous posts on the Falcons, Cowboys, Patriots, and Colts). Taking my raw data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, I have compiled the Offensive and Defensive rankings of the Steelers’ opponents from 2008 and 2009, broken out in the following 4 categories:  

• Pts Rk – Total Points Rank
• Yds Rk – Total Yards Rank
• Pass Rk – Passing Yards Rank
• Rush Rk – Rushing Yards Rank

The rankings for both seasons are based on how the teams finished the 2008 season, since, of course, the 2009 final rankings are yet to be determined.

Before we get into opponents’ rankings, let’s review the Steelers’ rankings from last season.

	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Steelers’ 2008 Off Rks	20	22	17	23
Steelers’ 2008 Def Rks	1	1	1	2

At one point last season, I believe I made a comment on BTSC that this team reminded me of the Steelers of the early ’70s, with a spectacular defense, perhaps one of the best ever, and an offense that was nothing to write home about, but seemed to come through when needed. The main difference between the 2008 Steelers and the 1974 Steelers, though, was that this offense relied heavily on the quarterback. The Steelers of the early ’70s relied heavily on the run, which, unfortunately, the 2008 team didn’t do too well.

With these numbers in mind, let’s take a look at the Steelers’ opponents for last year and this year. In the tables below, we see the Steelers’ opponents’ offensive and defensive ranks for 2008 and 2009. First, the offensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Steelers’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Houston Texans	17	3	4	13
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Philadelphia Eagles	6	9	6	22
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	20	15	18
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
New York Giants	3	7	18	1
Washington Redskins	28	19	23	8
Indianapolis Colts	13	15	5	31
San Diego Chargers	2	11	7	20
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
New England Patriots	8	5	12	6
Dallas Cowboys	18	13	9	21
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Average Ranks	17.56	17.81	19	16.56

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Steelers’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
Chicago Bears	15	26	21	24
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
San Diego Chargers	2	11	7	20
Detroit Lions	27	30	24	30
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Minnesota Vikings	12	17	25	5
Denver Broncos	16	2	3	12
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
Kansas City Chiefs	26	24	20	16
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Oakland Raiders	29	29	32	10
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Green Bay Packers	5	8	8	17
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Miami Dolphins	21	12	10	11
Average Ranks	19.69	21.38	22.19	16.88

Next, we have the opponents’ defensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Steelers’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Houston Texans	27	22	17	23
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Philadelphia Eagles	4	3	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	17	24	14
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
New York Giants	5	5	8	9
Washington Redskins	6	4	7	8
Indianapolis Colts	7	11	6	24
San Diego Chargers	15	25	31	11
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
New England Patriots	8	10	11	15
Dallas Cowboys	20	8	5	12
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Average Ranks	12.06	12	11.44	14.38

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Steelers’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
Chicago Bears	16	21	30	5
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
San Diego Chargers	15	25	31	11
Detroit Lions	32	32	27	32
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Minnesota Vikings	13	6	18	1
Denver Broncos	30	29	26	27
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
Kansas City Chiefs	29	31	28	30
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Oakland Raiders	24	27	10	31
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Green Bay Packers	22	20	12	26
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Miami Dolphins	9	15	25	10
Average Ranks	16.88	18.31	17.38	17.69

Just a glance at these tables shows that the main reason the Steelers’ SOS is much lower this year is due to the opposing defenses. The level of opponents’ offensive rankings decreases somewhat, while the level of opponents’ defensive ranking decreases dramatically. This seems like good news for the Steelers, because if there was one unit that struggled more than the others last year, it was the Steelers’ offense. With so much turnover on the offensive line, this would be a good year for those players to gain experience and gel together as a unit. Additionally, 2008 day one picks Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall should gain valuable experience this year. So, I expect the Steelers offense to be much more productive this year.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, here are a few items of the note from this data.

• The opponents’ average offensive rank decreases 12% in points scored from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average offensive rank decreases 20% in yards gained from 2008 to 2009 (17% in pass yards, 2% in rush yards).
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 40% in points allowed from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 53% in yards allowed from 2008 to 2009 (52% in pass yards, 23% in rush yards).
• In 2008, the Steelers faced the following number of top 10 offenses: 4 in points, 4 in yards, 5 passing, and 6 rushing.
• In 2009, the Steelers will face the following number of top 10 offenses: 2 in points, 2 in yards, 4 passing, and 5 rushing.
• In 2008, the Steelers faced the following number of top 10 defenses: 8 in points, 8 in yards, 8 passing, and 6 rushing.
• In 2009, the Steelers will face the following number of top 10 defenses: 4 in points, 4 in yards, 4 passing, and 6 rushing.

When looking at all of the numbers, I come away with a couple of things. First, this should be a season where Big Ben is able to pad his HOF stats. Either that, or we’ll see a return to some semblence of a power running game, just because the opposing defenses won’t be able to stop it like last year. However, since the Steelers face the same number of top 10 rush defenses, perhaps only the passing game will see significantly better numbers. Second, the Steelers’ defense may actually be able to hold every opponent under 300 yards of total offense this year. Realistically, I doubt it will happen, because there shouldn’t be a ton of nailbiter type games this year like we saw last year. That will mean it’s more likely that the Steelers get an early lead and teams will be passing more in the second half to try to come from behind. Also, with the big lead, teams tend to just play to run out the game, lowering their intensity somewhat. If anything, the Steelers may have to guard against complacency, if they get off to a great start. But, I’m sure they have a coach who will know how to guard against that.

Overall, based on this data, one would expect the Steelers to have a similar record to last year, probably better even. This analysis didn’t get into individual opponents and what changes each opponent went through in the offseason. For example, with another year under his belt, will Flacco be ready to take the next step, or will the Ravens defense take a step back with the loss of Rex Ryan? Will the Bengals improve with a healthy Carson Palmer and the return of a healthy Keith Rivers? We don’t know these answers.  But, as I said with the previous analyses, I think that this does give a good big picture view of the Steelers’ upcoming schedule, because surely not every team on it will improve dramatically.

Steeler Nation, let me know your thoughts on this discussion.

Tags: Ben Roethlisberger, Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rashard Mendenhall