Why Bruce Arians Should be Replaced as Steelers Offensive Coordinator

Bruce Arians

Over at Behind the Steel Curtain, the esteemed maryrose wrote an excellent post summarizing the Pittsburgh Steelers’ issues from this season. Overall, I agree with his assessments, but there is one area where we don’t see it the same. While he did point out the short yardage and goalline deficiencies in the Steelers offense, he is willing to give Arians credit for improving the offensive output this season by over 1000 and 21 points. Maryrose asks how Steelers fans can be so hard on Arians after a season with a 4000 yard passer, two 1000 yard receivers, and a 1000 yard rusher. At the same time, we seem to be willing to give Lebeau a pass for the defensive struggles. He has a good point there, but I think there are very legitimate reasons for that.

First, let’s quickly address Lebeau and the defensive issues. Why give him a pass? I believe that his history of great defenses, including the top defense in the league each of the last two years, gives him credibility. The defensive problems this year can be largely explained by all of the injuries as well as the loss of a couple starters from last years defense. The bottom line, though, is that Lebeau’s track record gives him the benefit of the doubt. He’s proven himself time and time again. This season looks more like an aberration. Not to mention that the defense still finished 5th in the league in yards allowed. So, I’m fully confident that with another year of experience for some of the younger guys, this defense will improve under Lebeau.

With that said, let’s turn our attention to Arians. He has a track record of inconsistency. Some games (or some drives), his offenses have looked unstoppable. There have been plays and drives that were just beautiful to watch. Then, there have been the wasted redzone opportunities. How many times have we seen quick passes from about the 4 yard line that were thrown into the middle of the field? In that situation, there are always many defenders in the area. I can’t remember a single time when that play resulted in a TD, but it often looked like the Steelers were lucky that it wasn’t an interception. As many Steelers fans have stated, the reason Arians should go is that he hasn’t shown a good feel for play calling. He calls too many empty sets in 3rd and short, for example. He wastes good drives with poor redzone play calling. This year, there were several games where the 4th quarter collapses were as much the offense’s fault as the defenses. Whether they didn’t bury the team when they were clearly dominating earlier in the game, or they didn’t score any points (or in some cases, even gain a first down) in the 4th quarter, the offense clearly contributed to many of the losses.

With that lengthy introduction, my purpose in this post is to review all of the NFL teams in history who had a 4000 yard passer and see where this Steelers team ranked in terms of points scored. In fact, I looked at a few other things as well, but I will get into those very soon. I actually first looked at teams with a QB of over 4300 yards passing since Ben had just over 4300 yards this season. As usual, I pulled my data from Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Using their Player Season Finder, I pulled the individual seasons that a QB had over 4300 yards and 4000 yards respectively. Both were sorted by passing TDs scored. Of players who have passed for 4300 yards, Ben ranked tied for 31st (with 4 other players) out of 41, with 26 TD passes. So, of course, a 4300 yard passing season is nothing to sneeze at, but this season ranked in bottom 25% of such seasons in terms of passing TDs. I then looked at his season against 4000 yard passers. He tied for 55th (with 8 other players) out of 84. Again, in the bottom 3rd of that group. Again, a 4300+ yard passing season is a great accomplishment, but among such seasons, this one was well below average.

That leads me to the next point. The real issue is not so much how many TD passes Ben threw. The issue how many points this “explosive” offense scored. For each season represented, I looked up and recorded how many points they scored for the season. Among teams with a 4300 yard passer, this offense ranked 35th out of 41 in points scored. When we include all 4000 yard passers, the team ranks 67th out of 84 teams. 

In addition to points scored, I recorded team ranks in points scored and yards gained. The reason I did this is that I believe that the Steelers offense wasted too many opportunities, which I believe is reflected in the fact that their offensive ranking in points is 5 places lower than their yardage ranking. For each team, I calculated the difference in their respective offensive rankings by subtracting the points ranking from the yards ranking. The resulting difference is, I believe, an indicator of wasted offensive opportunities to score points. The two tables below show the results.

4300 Yard Passers

Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	Yds Rk-Pts Rk	Pts Rk	Yds Rk
1	Aaron Rodgers	2009	26	GNB	3	3	6
2	Peyton Manning	2009	33	IND	2	7	9
3	Steve Beuerlein	1999	34	CAR	2	4	6
4	Jim Everett	1989	26	RAM	2	2	4
5	Dan Marino*	1986	25	MIA	1	1	2
6	Peyton Manning	2006	30	IND	1	2	3
7	Kurt Warner	2008	37	ARI	1	3	4
8	Bill Kenney	1983	28	KAN	1	8	9
9	Brett Favre	1995	26	GNB	1	6	7
10	Peyton Manning	2004	28	IND	1	1	2
11	Drew Bledsoe	2002	30	BUF	0	11	11
12	Drew Brees	2009	30	NOR	0	1	1
13	Kurt Warner	2001	30	STL	0	1	1
14	Dan Fouts*	1981	30	SDG	0	1	1
15	Tom Brady	2007	30	NWE	0	1	1
16	Kurt Warner	1999	28	STL	0	1	1
17	Dan Marino*	1984	23	MIA	0	1	1
18	Drew Brees	2008	29	NOR	0	1	1
19	Rich Gannon	2002	37	OAK	-1	2	1
20	Peyton Manning	2000	24	IND	-1	4	3
21	Warren Moon*	1990	34	HOU	-1	2	1
22	Scott Mitchell	1995	27	DET	-1	2	1
23	Trent Green	2004	34	KAN	-1	2	1
24	Neil Lomax	1984	25	STL	-1	4	3
25	Warren Moon*	1991	35	HOU	-2	4	2
26	Don Majkowski	1989	25	GNB	-2	8	6
27	Dan Marino*	1994	33	MIA	-2	3	1
28	Daunte Culpepper	2004	27	MIN	-2	6	4
29	Lynn Dickey	1983	34	GNB	-3	5	2
30	Tom Brady	2009	32	NWE	-3	6	3
31	Dan Fouts*	1980	29	SDG	-3	4	1
32	Marc Bulger	2006	29	STL	-4	10	6
33	Drew Bledsoe	1994	22	NWE	-4	8	4
34	Drew Brees	2006	27	NOR	-4	5	1
35	Ben Roethlisberger	2009	27	PIT	-5	12	7
36	Matt Schaub	2009	28	HOU	-6	10	4
37	Drew Brees	2007	28	NOR	-8	12	4
38	Mark Brunell	1996	26	JAX	-12	14	2
39	Dan Marino*	1988	27	MIA	-12	17	5
40	Tony Romo	2009	29	DAL	-12	14	2
41	Jay Cutler	2008	25	DEN	-14	16	2

4000 Yard Passers

Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	Yds Rk-Pts Rk	Pts Rk	Yds Rk
1	Philip Rivers	2008	27	SDG	9	2	11
2	Philip Rivers	2009	28	SDG	6	4	10
3	Drew Bledsoe	1996	24	NWE	5	2	7
4	Brett Favre	2009	40	MIN	3	2	5
5	Aaron Rodgers	2008	25	GNB	3	5	8
6	Aaron Rodgers	2009	26	GNB	3	3	6
7	Jon Kitna	2007	35	DET	3	16	19
8	Peyton Manning	2007	31	IND	2	3	5
9	Steve Beuerlein	1999	34	CAR	2	4	6
10	Jim Everett	1989	26	RAM	2	2	4
11	John Elway*	1993	33	DEN	2	3	5
12	Peyton Manning	2008	32	IND	2	13	15
13	Dan Fouts*	1979	28	SDG	2	2	4
14	Peyton Manning	2009	33	IND	2	7	9
15	Dan Marino*	1986	25	MIA	1	1	2
16	Dan Marino*	1985	24	MIA	1	4	5
17	Kurt Warner	2008	37	ARI	1	3	4
18	Peyton Manning	2006	30	IND	1	2	3
19	Jon Kitna	2006	34	DET	1	21	22
20	Bill Kenney	1983	28	KAN	1	8	9
21	Peyton Manning	1999	23	IND	1	3	4
22	Brett Favre	1995	26	GNB	1	6	7
23	Peyton Manning	2004	28	IND	1	1	2
24	Peyton Manning	2003	27	IND	1	2	3
25	Tony Romo	2007	27	DAL	1	2	3
26	Trent Green	2003	33	KAN	1	1	2
27	Peyton Manning	2001	25	IND	0	2	2
28	Eli Manning	2009	28	NYG	0	8	8
29	Warren Moon*	1995	39	MIN	0	4	4
30	Kurt Warner	2001	30	STL	0	1	1
31	Carson Palmer	2006	27	CIN	0	8	8
32	Kurt Warner	1999	28	STL	0	1	1
33	Tom Brady	2007	30	NWE	0	1	1
34	Drew Brees	2009	30	NOR	0	1	1
35	Drew Bledsoe	2002	30	BUF	0	11	11
36	Dan Marino*	1984	23	MIA	0	1	1
37	Dan Fouts*	1981	30	SDG	0	1	1
38	Steve Young*	1993	32	SFO	0	1	1
39	Drew Brees	2008	29	NOR	0	1	1
40	Brad Johnson	1999	31	WAS	0	2	2
41	Rich Gannon	2002	37	OAK	-1	2	1
42	Brett Favre	1999	30	GNB	-1	10	9
43	Carson Palmer	2007	28	CIN	-1	11	10
44	Peyton Manning	2000	24	IND	-1	4	3
45	Jeff George	1995	28	ATL	-1	11	10
46	Neil Lomax	1984	25	STL	-1	4	3
47	Trent Green	2004	34	KAN	-1	2	1
48	Scott Mitchell	1995	27	DET	-1	2	1
49	Brett Favre	1998	29	GNB	-1	6	5
50	Warren Moon*	1990	34	HOU	-1	2	1
51	Elvis Grbac	2000	30	KAN	-1	9	8
52	Joe Namath*	1967	24	NYJ	-2	3	1
53	Brett Favre	2007	38	GNB	-2	4	2
54	Don Majkowski	1989	25	GNB	-2	8	6
55	Steve Young*	1998	37	SFO	-2	3	1
56	Dan Marino*	1994	33	MIA	-2	3	1
57	Jeff Garcia	2000	30	SFO	-2	6	4
58	Daunte Culpepper	2004	27	MIN	-2	6	4
59	Brett Favre	2004	35	GNB	-2	5	3
60	Warren Moon*	1991	35	HOU	-2	4	2
61	Brian Sipe	1980	31	CLE	-3	8	5
62	Dan Fouts*	1980	29	SDG	-3	4	1
63	Dan Marino*	1992	31	MIA	-3	8	5
64	Tom Brady	2009	32	NWE	-3	6	3
65	Lynn Dickey	1983	34	GNB	-3	5	2
66	Tom Brady	2005	28	NWE	-3	10	7
67	Vinny Testaverde	1996	33	BAL	-3	6	3
68	Drew Bledsoe	1994	22	NWE	-4	8	4
69	Warren Moon*	1994	38	MIN	-4	7	3
70	Drew Brees	2006	27	NOR	-4	5	1
71	Jake Plummer	2004	30	DEN	-4	9	5
72	Jay Schroeder	1986	25	WAS	-4	9	5
73	Marc Bulger	2006	29	STL	-4	10	6
74	Trent Green	2005	35	KAN	-5	6	1
75	Ben Roethlisberger	2009	27	PIT	-5	12	7
76	Phil Simms	1984	30	NYG	-6	19	13
77	Matt Schaub	2009	28	HOU	-6	10	4
78	Peyton Manning	2002	26	IND	-8	17	9
79	Drew Brees	2007	28	NOR	-8	12	4
80	Tony Romo	2009	29	DAL	-12	14	2
81	Dan Marino*	1988	27	MIA	-12	17	5
82	Mark Brunell	1996	26	JAX	-12	14	2
83	Jay Cutler	2008	25	DEN	-14	16	2
84	Kerry Collins	2002	30	NYG	-16	22	6

In both cases, we see that the Steelers offense ranked among the bottom in terms of points ranking not living up to the yardage ranking.

I am sure that some will again question how you can complain about an offense with a 4000 yard passer, two 1000 yard WRs, and a 1000 yard rusher. But, to me, these numbers make it clear that this offense had the potential to score a lot more points, and the main reason that they didn’t was Bruce Arians’ inability to develop a solid redzone strategy. Referring back to the discussion of track record above, this fits Arians’ track record. I see no real reason for hope that he will fix his own shortcomings next year because he hasn’t yet. Obviously, this is a moot point now, as Arians has been retained, but I wanted to show that there is some legitimate basis for making a change at this time. This offense is loaded with talent, and the lack of coherent play-calling appears to be the main thing holding them back from being a truly explosive offense.

Footnote: I know I did not include the table for the data wrt to the offensive points scored data. If you just have to see it, shoot me an email at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com, and I will email you the spreadsheet I used to store and sort the data.

Tags: Bruce Arians, Dick Lebeau, Pittsburgh Steelers