Can the Colts Win 12 Games This Year?

Peyton Manning

The Indianapolis Colts have won 12 games for each of the last 6 years, which is an NFL record. According to wikipedia, that is two more than the next closest team (scroll to the bottom), which is the Dallas Cowboys (1992-1995). Last year, with Peyton Manning missing all of the preseason, they got off to slow start, but finished strong to preserve the streak of 12 win seasons. Will they continue that streak this year, or will the loss of Tony Dungy prove too much for them?

Comparing their 2008 schedule with 2009, it appears that they are facing a slightly tougher schedule than they did last year. In 2009, the Colts’ Strength of Schedule is ranked 13th, with a 0.512 winning percentage based on 2008 records. That is only slightly higher than the 0.496 winning percentage of their 2008 opponents. Of course, we won’t know the final SOS for this schedule until the end of the season, but at this point, it appears that the Colts will face a similar schedule to last years, overall.

In this post, I wanted to break down the Colts’ 2008 and 2009 schedules a little further to get a better understanding of what they are up against this season (much the same way I had in previous posts on the Falcons, Cowboys, and Patriots). Taking my raw data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, I have compiled the Offensive and Defensive rankings of the Colts’ opponents from 2008 and 2009, broken out in the following 4 categories:

• Pts Rk – Total Points Rank
• Yds Rk – Total Yards Rank
• Pass Rk – Passing Yards Rank
• Rush Rk – Rushing Yards Rank

The rankings for both seasons are based on how the teams finished the 2008 season, since, of course, the 2009 final rankings are yet to be determined.

Before we get into opponents’ rankings, let’s review the Colts’ rankings from last season.

	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Colts’ 2008 Off Rks	13	15	5	31
Colts’ 2008 Def Rks	7	11	6	24

Somewhat surprisingly, the Colts finished with higher rankings in defense than in offense. For most of this decade, they have been viewed as an explosive offensive team with decent to good, but not great, defense. Last year, they were a top 10 defense in points allowed and nearly a top 10 defense in yards allowed, although their rush defense left something to be desired. As usual, Manning had them in the top 5 in passing offense, but Joseph Addai struggled to replicate the success of his rookie year. The return of Dominic Rhodes did not help much either, as the Colts were 2nd to last in rush offense.

With these numbers in mind, let’s take a look at the Colts’ opponents for last year and this year. In the tables below, we see the Colts’ opponents’ offensive and defensive ranks for 2008 and 2009. First, the offensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Colts’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Chicago Bears	15	26	21	24
Minnesota Vikings	12	17	25	5
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	20	15	18
Houston Texans	17	3	4	13
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Green Bay Packers	5	8	8	17
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
New England Patriots	8	5	12	6
Pittsburgh Steelers	20	22	17	23
Houston Texans	17	3	4	13
San Diego Chargers	2	11	7	20
Cleveland Browns	31	31	31	26
Cincinnati Bengals	32	32	30	29
Detroit Lions	27	30	24	30
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	20	15	18
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
Average Ranks	17.06	18	18.44	16.25

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Offensive Ranks
Colts’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	20	15	18
Miami Dolphins	21	12	10	11
Arizona Cardinals	4	4	2	32
Seattle Seahawks	25	28	29	19
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
St. Louis Rams	30	27	26	25
San Francisco 49ers	22	23	13	27
Houston Texans	17	3	4	13
New England Patriots	8	5	12	6
Baltimore Ravens	11	18	28	4
Houston Texans	17	3	4	13
Tennessee Titans	14	21	27	7
Denver Broncos	16	2	3	12
Jacksonville Jaguars	24	20	15	18
New York Jets	9	16	16	9
Buffalo Bills	23	25	22	14
Average Ranks	17.44	15.5	15.81	14.69

Next, we have the opponents’ defensive ranks for 2008:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Colts’ 2008 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Chicago Bears	16	21	30	5
Minnesota Vikings	13	6	18	1
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	17	24	14
Houston Texans	27	22	17	23
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Green Bay Packers	22	20	12	26
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
New England Patriots	8	10	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1	1	2
Houston Texans	27	22	17	23
San Diego Chargers	15	25	31	11
Cleveland Browns	17	26	14	28
Cincinnati Bengals	19	12	15	21
Detroit Lions	32	32	27	32
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	17	24	14
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
Average Ranks	15.38	15.44	16.31	14.38

And 2009:

	Opponents’ Defensive Ranks
Colts’ 2009 Schedule	Pts Rk	Yds Rk	Pass Rk	Rush Rk
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	17	24	14
Miami Dolphins	9	15	25	10
Arizona Cardinals	28	19	22	16
Seattle Seahawks	25	30	32	18
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
St. Louis Rams	31	28	19	29
San Francisco 49ers	23	13	20	13
Houston Texans	27	22	17	23
New England Patriots	8	10	11	15
Baltimore Ravens	3	2	2	3
Houston Texans	27	22	17	23
Tennessee Titans	2	7	9	6
Denver Broncos	30	29	26	27
Jacksonville Jaguars	21	17	24	14
New York Jets	18	16	29	7
Buffalo Bills	14	14	13	22
Average Ranks	18.06	16.75	18.69	15.38

Just a glance at these tables shows that there is not a ton of change in the level of opponents’ defensive or offensive rankings. The level of opponents’ offenses increases while the level of opponents’ defenses decreases, but only slightly for both. This seems like good news for the Colts, because most of their early struggles seemed to stem from Manning’s missing the pre-season. With the addition of first round pick Donald Brown, the offense should return to the overall top 5 form that they have enjoyed throughout most of Manning’s tenure with Indy. They also added DT Fili Moala in the second round of the draft, with the hope that he will help shore up the rushing defense.

Digging a little deeper into the numbers, here are a few items of the note from this data.

• The opponents’ average offensive rank decreases 2% in points scored from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average offensive rank increases 14% in yards gained from 2008 to 2009 (14% in pass yards, 10% in rush yards).
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 17% in points allowed from 2008 to 2009.
• The opponents’ average defensive rank decreases 9% in yards allowed from 2008 to 2009 (15% in pass yards, 7% in rush yards).
• In 2008, the Colts faced the following number of top 10 offenses: 3 in points, 4 in yards, 4 passing, and 5 rushing.
• In 2009, the Colts will face the following number of top 10 offenses: 3 in points, 5 in yards, 5 passing, and 5 rushing.
• In 2008, the Colts faced the following number of top 10 defenses: 5 in points, 6 in yards, 4 passing, and 6 rushing.
• In 2009, the Colts will face the following number of top 10 defenses: 5 in points, 4 in yards, 3 passing, and 5 rushing.

When looking at all of the numbers, I come away with a couple of things. First, as usual, the Colts should be able to put up tons of yards and points this year. Based on these numbers, they will face a very similar defensive schedule as last year. As I said above, the main cause of their struggles last year appeared be Manning having missed the preseason. That caused him to be a little rusty early in the season, but by about week 5, he was as good as ever. I remember thinking at the end of the season how it was a down year for him, yet he still had over 4000 yards passing and nearly 30 TDs. So, with him being completely healthy and some additional help from Donald Brown, expect the Colts offense to be humming as usual.

Second, the Colts’ defense will face a slightly tougher offensive schedule than last year. While their overall defensive numbers were pretty respectable, their rush defense definitely needed some help. Since the opposing pass offensive rankings increases more than the opposing rush offensive rankings, this may play to their advantage somewhat. But, they really need for Moala or someone to step up in the middle and help shut down opposing RBs.

Overall, based on this data, one would expect the Colts to have a similar year to last year, possibly being more productive offensively due to Manning being completely healthy. However, this analysis didn’t get into individual opponents and what changes each opponent went through in the offseason. For example, the Seahawks have moved on from the Mike Holmgren era, and it appears that Matt Hasselbeck is back healthy. They also added TJ Houshmenzadeh, who should be a good target for Hasselbeck. For them, was Holmgren’s farewell tour a distraction, or did he wring every bit he could out of them considering their injuries? Will Hasselbeck stay healthy? We don’t know these answers.  But, as I said with the previous analyses, I think that this does give a good big picture view of the Colts’ upcoming schedule.

Colt fans, let me know your thoughts on this discussion.

Tags: Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts, Joseph Addai, Peyton Manning