A Playoff Argument for Terrell Davis being a Hall of Famer

Denver Broncos runningback Terrell Davis(30) slips the tackle attempt by Cincinnati Bengals safety Greg Meyers as he breaks into the secondary to pickup a first down during the second quarter of their game at Denver's Mile High Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 21, 1997. (AP Photo/Joe Mahoney)

Over the past couple of years, I have analyzed some of the top running backs in NFL history, both on Checking the Numbers (here) and at Behind the Steel Curtain (here and here). In each of these analyses, I have shown that, on a per game basis, Terrell Davis was one of the top RBs in NFL history. In some analyses he showed up as a top 3 player, but in all he was at least top 10. The knock on him has been that he did not play long enough for serious consideration, although for a 4 year stretch, he was every bit as good at Emmitt Smith and very close to Barry Sanders. So, as I did recently for Hines Ward, I am going to look at how Terrell Davis’s playoff numbers compare with other greats in NFL history.

Another Comparison of RBs’ Best 4 Years

Last week, I posted this article comparing some of the top RBs in NFL history, this time looking at their career peaks in terms of a 4 year stretch. As quick review, I defined their top 4 year stretches as the period of 4 consecutive years where the player gained the most total yards from scrimmage in his career. In my last post, many commenters (both here at Checking the Numbers and at BTSC) suggested improvements both in analysis technique and in players to review, so I decided to go back and complete a followup analysis. Based on the feedback that I received, I added several players that were suggested, and I also made a couple changes to my ranking system.

Top RBs in NFL History – Their Best 4 Years

Marshall Faulk

Jim Brown

About a year and a half ago, I was inspired to perform an analysis on the top running backs in NFL history. I did 2 posts on the topic at Behind the Steel Curtain, first on the top 10 backs in overall rushing yards, then a followup including the RBs that were top 10 in yards/game and yards/attempt. In these analyses, I had included the entire careers of each player considered, which may have unfairly favored players who retired at or near their primes. So, I had been considering for a while whether it might be of interest to complete the same type of analysis for all of the players, but in this case, I would only consider the best 4 year period in that player’s career. So, essentially, I am reviewing the career peaks of the best running backs in NFL history.

LT (AP Photo/Matt York)

Why 4 years? In some ways, it’s an arbitrary

Terrell Davis

 choice. But, it is about the average length of most running backs’ careers. I believe the average is below 3.5 years now, but that’s still more than 3, on average. It’s also the number of years that Terrell Davis was productive. Because of that, I was just curious to see how he stacked up against other RBs peak 4 year period.

Emmitt Smith

In this post, I am reviewing the same 20 players as in the last RB analysis. They are listed in the table below, in addition to the following information:

• the years analyzed
• number of games played and started for those years
• total yards from scrimmage during those years
• total touchdowns and fumbles from those years

The way that I determined which four year period to analyze for each player was by determining for which period that player had the most total yards from scrimmage.

Players	Years	G	GS	YScm	TotTD	Fmb
Emmitt Smith	1992-1995	61	60	7921	76	16
Walter Payton 1	1977-1980	62	62	7746	50	28
Walter Payton 2	1983-1986	64	64	7829	41	22
Barry Sanders	1994-1997	64	64	8122	45	10
Curtis Martin	1998-2001	63	63	6920	35	11
Jerome Bettis	1996-1999	62	58	5804	30	17
Eric Dickerson	1983-1986	62	62	7842	57	49
Tony Dorsett	1978-1981	61	60	6604	33	39
Jim Brown	1962-1965	56	56	7302	63	28
Marshall Faulk	1998-2001	60	59	8992	69	8
Marcus Allen	1983-1986	61	57	7056	50	32
Franco Harris	1976-1979	59	59	5206	45	33
Marion Motley	1947-1950	51	36	3840	28	5
Bo Jackson	1987-1990	38	23	3134	18	11
Spec Sanders	1946-1948	40	30	3172	36	1
Terrell Davis	1995-1998	61	61	7594	61	16
LaDainian Tomlinson	2003-2006	63	63	8301	86	13
Clinton Portis	2002-2005	60	56	7059	49	16
Edgerrin James	2003-2006	60	60	6801	40	16
Jamal Lewis	2000-2004	60	57	6822	34	24
Ricky Williams	2000-2003	58	58	7104	43	28

There are a couple of Items of Note to address before moving forward. First, I included two 4 year periods for Walter Payton because he was the only player to have two distinct peak periods, for which the total yards from scrimmage were within about 80 yards of each other. By distinct periods I mean that there was no overlap in the years for those two periods. Secondly, Spec Sanders’s and Jamal Lewis’s periods are adjusted for special circumstances. Sanders’s analysis is only for 3 years, because he played halfback from 1946 to 1948, did not play in 1949, and returned in 1950 as a safety. So, I thought it made more sense to only include his numbers from the first three years. Lewis’s analysis covers the period from 2000 to 2004, which is 5 years. But, since he was out the entirety of the 2001 season with a knee injury, I decided that this period would be accurate for this analysis.

As with the previous analyses, I ranked each player according yards per game and per touch in both rushing and receiving as well as TDs and fumbles per game. After ranking them in each category, I calculated the average of each player’s rankings in all categories and sorted the running backs from highest average among all categories to lowest. In the following tables, I have included the raw statistics (gathered from Pro-Football-Reference.com) for the players.